Strategy Report - ASTS

STRATEGY REPORT: ASTS

// AST SpaceMobile, Inc. | 2026-02-16 14:53

Volatility Distribution

Market Move	Count	Probability
Extreme Drop (> -10%)	17	3.4%
Large Drop (-5% to -10%)	75	15.0%
Moderate Drop (-2.5% to -5%)	56	11.2%
Normal Drop (-1% to -2.5%)	56	11.2%
Quiet (< ±1%)	82	16.4%
Normal Rise (1% to 2.5%)	58	11.6%
Moderate Rise (2.5% to 5%)	51	10.2%
Large Rise (5% to 10%)	60	12.0%
Extreme Rise (> 10%)	46	9.2%

DISTRIBUTION INSIGHTS

- Extreme moves (Extreme Rise (> 10%)): Occur 9.2% of the time. Risks are higher.

Streak Analysis

DIRECTIONAL BIAS [2Y]

UP DAYS

51.7%

DOWN DAYS

48.3%

Streak	Frequency
1-Day	132
2-Day	64
3-Day	37
4-Day	14
5-Day	6
6+ Day	6

TACTICAL IMPLICATION

- Most common swing duration: 1 days.
- Probability of verifying extended trends diminishes significantly after Day 3.